This means that once the bottlenecks are addressed it becomes economical to replace a relatively new truck with a Tesla as the operational and profit advantages easily support doing so.īecause the buyers are commercial rather than retail, and the competition cannot equal Tesla's efficiency, the ascent of the Semi's market share against its rivals (both ICE and EV) may easily exceed the rise of the Model Y gaining market share by comparison.Īs for the charging bottleneck, because freight predominantly uses the Interstate and similar high-volume roads, it will be easier to place charging stations at the existing locations for supplying fuel for ICE trucking. These vehicles are so efficient that they pay for themselves. Production ramp and charging logistics are the only bottlenecks. Note: This depends heavily on the timing of price hikes and Model Y growth to push up ASP from Q2’s $57k to $63k by Q4, and that timing is inherently uncertain.įrom the info that has been shown on the Semi's performance spec, it is a game-changer. Here’s my estimate summary that outputs $7 earnings per share in Q4. I think Q4 deliveries are most likely to be in the 500-550 range. That’s not impossible but it’s a stretch. Since Fremont is very unlikely to get above 150k in Q4, getting to 600k total in Q4 would require Berlin and Austin to do 75k each or an average 6.3k per week assuming they too have a week of holiday. If I remember correctly that weekly number already includes routine production downtime. That being said, if these Shanghai line upgrades really do get them to 22k vehicles per week sometime in Q3 and they continue squeezing out improvement on that, Shanghai could make about 300k in Q4 despite the week off for holiday. TE also said it’s more of a best case scenario projection based on Elon’s recent comments and the most credible available sources for the improvements at Shanghai, Berlin and Austin. His numbers would therefore look better than Q4 but worse than Q1. It’s a snapshot of the flow of cars and cash going into Q1 ‘23. Tesla Economist’s recent numbers are not for Q4 cumulatively but rather for the rate at the end of December extrapolated as though that week were a whole quarter.
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